AI Pulse
Updated Jan 2026
Jump to Overview NVIDIA Chip Landscape GPU Clouds Economics
90%+
NVIDIA AI chip share
Training market
$3.3T
NVIDIA market cap
Jan 2026
$200B+
Big Tech AI CapEx
2025 combined
$100B
Stargate project
Announced investment

Infrastructure is the limiting factor. Whoever controls AI compute controls AI's future. NVIDIA dominates, but challengers are emerging. Hyperscalers are spending unprecedented billions. And efficiency innovations may reshape the economics entirely.

The Infrastructure Stack

AI infrastructure spans three layers: chips (GPUs, TPUs, custom silicon), cloud platforms (where compute is accessed), and data centers (physical facilities). NVIDIA dominates the first layer; competition is fiercer at higher levels.

The Compute Bottleneck: Training frontier models requires tens of thousands of GPUs running for months. Inference at scale requires even more. The AI boom is fundamentally constrained by chip supply and data center capacity.

NVIDIA Dominance

NVIDIA's GPUs power virtually all AI training and most inference. The H100 became the most sought-after chip in history. Blackwell is the next generation.

H100 / H200
Current Gen
  • 80GB / 141GB HBM3 memory
  • ~$25K-40K per chip (reported)
  • Powers GPT-4, Claude, Gemini training
  • The "gold standard" for AI training
B100 / B200 (Blackwell)
Next Gen
  • Up to 192GB HBM3e memory
  • ~2.5x performance vs H100
  • Ramping production late 2024-2025
  • Already supply constrained

Chip Landscape

Challengers are emerging, but NVIDIA's CUDA ecosystem remains its deepest moat.

AI Training Chip Market Share (Est.)
NVIDIA
~92%
AMD
~5%
Google TPU
~2%
Others
~1%
AMD MI300X
Challenger
  • 192GB HBM3 memory (more than H100)
  • Competitive on some benchmarks
  • ROCm software improving
  • Price competitive, gaining traction
Google TPU v5p
Custom
  • Purpose-built for AI workloads
  • Powers Gemini training
  • Available via Google Cloud
  • Cost-effective for certain workloads

GPU Cloud Providers

Access to compute is stratifying. Hyperscalers have the most capacity; specialists offer alternatives.

Hyperscalers
Most Capacity
  • AWS: Largest cloud, Trainium chips
  • Azure: OpenAI partnership, NVIDIA focus
  • GCP: TPUs + NVIDIA, Gemini home
  • Best for: Enterprise, long-term contracts
GPU Specialists
Alternatives
  • CoreWeave: NVIDIA preferred partner
  • Lambda Labs: ML-focused cloud
  • Together AI: Open model inference
  • Best for: Startups, flexible access

The Economics

AI compute costs are falling rapidly — but demand is growing even faster.

The Cost Curve: Inference costs have dropped ~10x per year since GPT-3. Training efficiency is improving through better architectures (MoE) and techniques. DeepSeek's $6M training cost shocked the industry — but frontier labs are still spending $100M+.
The DeepSeek Question: When DeepSeek trained competitive models cheaply, NVIDIA briefly lost $600B in market cap. If efficiency gains outpace demand, the infrastructure buildout may prove excessive. Big Tech is betting scale still matters.

✓ Key Takeaways

NVIDIA controls 90%+ of AI training chips
CUDA ecosystem is NVIDIA's real moat
AMD and custom silicon gaining ground slowly
$200B+ Big Tech CapEx in 2025
Inference costs dropping ~10x annually
Efficiency innovations may reshape economics

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